The $270,000 Target: A Liquidity-Fueled Ascent?
Analyst Kyle Chassé has staked a bold claim: Bitcoin is undervalued, with a potential surge to $270,000 driven by escalating global liquidity. Chassé points to the relentless expansion of the global M2 money supply, which reportedly hit a record $98 trillion. This deluge of fiat currency, fueled by aggressive monetary policies from major economic powerhouses including the US, Eurozone, China, and Japan, is effectively diluting the value of traditional assets.
The Fiat Denominator and Fixed-Supply Assets
According to Chassé, the critical point is that in a system where fiat currencies are subject to perpetual dilution, fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin become increasingly attractive. It’s not necessarily that these assets are dramatically increasing in intrinsic value, but rather that fiat currencies are steadily losing their purchasing power. In this context, Bitcoin serves as a hedge against currency debasement and the potential resurgence of inflation, a specter that continues to haunt global markets.
The year-to-date global liquidity growth of 6.2% is the fastest since the pandemic response of 2020, supporting the argument that Bitcoin is a viable hedge against currency debasement.
Macroeconomic Headwinds: A Reality Check
While Chassé’s analysis paints a compelling picture, the reality on the ground is more nuanced. Bitcoin, despite its decentralized ethos, hasn’t been immune to traditional market forces. Political tensions, particularly within the US, have triggered bouts of risk aversion, leading to temporary corrections in the crypto markets.
US Fiscal Policy and Bitcoin’s Trajectory
Concerns regarding US fiscal policy and the looming threat of government shutdowns have weighed heavily on investor sentiment, contributing to Bitcoin’s volatility. These events highlight the fact that, despite its inherent properties, Bitcoin still trades as a risk asset, sensitive to broader macroeconomic and political uncertainties. As seen in early 2025, even seemingly minor political squabbles can send ripples through the crypto sphere, underscoring the need for traders to maintain vigilance and diversify their strategies.
Read Also: Bitcoin Price Struggles Near $86K as Bears and Bulls Fight for Control
Waves of Change: A Technical Perspective
Another prominent crypto analyst, Merlijn, offers a different perspective, rooted in technical analysis. Merlijn suggests that Bitcoin’s price action follows identifiable patterns, specifically based on Elliott Wave theory. According to this analysis, Bitcoin has already completed waves 1, 2, and 3, characterized by lower highs that signal a weakening trend.
A Reset and Rebound?
Merlijn’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin is poised to form waves 4 and 5, indicative of a market reset—a period of absorption and the establishment of a new base. While acknowledging that the absolute bottom might not yet be in, Merlijn anticipates a subsequent rally that could propel Bitcoin towards the $124,000 mark, potentially challenging its all-time high of $126,000.
Current Market Sentiment
As of today, Bitcoin is trading around $87,700, experiencing some downward pressure in the last 24 hours. This price point reflects a market grappling with competing forces: the bullish narrative of expanding global liquidity versus the bearish headwinds of macroeconomic uncertainty and political instability.
Navigating the Crypto Landscape in 2026
The insights from Chassé and Merlijn offer valuable frameworks for understanding Bitcoin’s potential trajectory in 2026. Chassé’s focus on global liquidity highlights the fundamental role of monetary policy in shaping the value of scarce assets like Bitcoin. However, it’s crucial to acknowledge the limitations of this analysis, as macroeconomic events and risk sentiment can exert significant short-term influence on Bitcoin’s price.
Risk Management is Key
Merlijn’s technical analysis provides a complementary perspective, offering a framework for identifying potential market turning points and gauging the strength of prevailing trends. By combining these insights, investors can develop a more comprehensive understanding of Bitcoin’s current state and make informed decisions. It is increasingly clear that a balanced approach—incorporating both fundamental and technical analysis—is critical for navigating the complexities of the crypto market in 2026.
