The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a turbulent phase, particularly with Bitcoin (BTC) approaching a precarious crossroads. On June 22, 2025, industry analyst CrypNuevo raised alarms on social media about Bitcoin’s recent loss of key support at the psychological threshold of 100,000 USD. This level had served as a robust technical barrier, holding strong for several weeks prior. The breakdown was noted around 10:00 AM UTC, supported by real-time data from major exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase, stirring concerns among traders about potential further declines.
According to CrypNuevo, the next substantial support level to keep an eye on is set at 93,000 USD. Additionally, there’s a possibility of liquidity grabs at the 95,000 USD mark, as the market begins testing lower order blocks. Should Bitcoin manage to reclaim the 100,000 USD support, it could signify a reversal of the current bearish momentum, providing a glimmer of hope for traders wary of extended declines.
This analysis is underscored by a broader market sentiment reflecting increased volatility, driven in part by macroeconomic pressures, particularly rising interest rates. As indicated in the Federal Reserve’s latest minutes, the ramifications of these rate hikes often extend to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Supporting this observation is the strengthening correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, which had a 30-day correlation coefficient of 0.78 as of June 22, 2025. This indicates that the fluctuations in the stock market are increasingly influencing cryptocurrency trends, an interesting dynamic that traders must consider.
On June 21, 2025, at 3:00 PM UTC, the Nasdaq reported a drop of 1.2 percent, and within the following 24 hours, Bitcoin mirrored this trend with a decline of 2.5 percent. This intertwined movement highlights how closely the crypto market follows the traditional equities market during risk-off periods, where investors are generally more cautious.
From a trading perspective, Bitcoin’s breakdown below the critical 100,000 USD level brings both opportunities and risks. As noted by CrypNuevo, the anticipated dip towards 93,000 USD suggests a short-term bearish outlook for the BTC/USD trading pair across various exchanges, particularly on Binance, where spot trading volume surged by 18 percent to 2.1 billion USD in the 24 hours following the support break. For day traders, this volatility may present a short-selling opportunity with a target at 95,000 USD for liquidity grabs. However, it is prudent to place stop-loss orders above 100,500 USD to protect against unexpected market reversals.
Conversely, if Bitcoin rebounds and regains the 100,000 USD threshold, it could ignite bullish momentum, with the next resistance observed at 103,000 USD, based on historical price action from earlier in June. Such technical levels are critical as traders navigate the market landscape, where institutional activities also play a pivotal role.
Recent market dynamics demonstrate a trend of institutional money flow redirecting towards stablecoins like USDT, especially in light of stock market sell-offs. On-chain data from Glassnode illustrated a 12 percent spike in USDT inflows to exchanges on June 21, 2025, at 5:00 PM UTC, hinting at heightened risk-averse sentiment among investors. This shift could stymie Bitcoin’s recovery unless traditional indices like the Dow Jones stabilize. On the same day, the Dow Jones experienced a drop of 0.9 percent, further reflecting broader market unease. Even crypto-related stocks, such as Coinbase Global (COIN), faced challenges, dipping by 3.4 percent in response to market fluctuations.
On a technical analysis front, the indicators present a nuanced narrative for Bitcoin’s ongoing trajectory. As of June 22, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart fell to 38 at 12:00 PM UTC, indicating oversold conditions that could set the stage for a potential bounce should buying volume return, as outlined by TradingView’s analytics. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to portray a bearish scenario, with a negative histogram reading of -1,200 at the same timestamp, suggesting ongoing downward pressure.
Furthermore, on-chain metrics from Glassnode reported a 9 percent drop in Bitcoin’s network transaction volume, falling to 320,000 transactions on June 21, 2025, at 8:00 PM UTC. This decline indicates reduced user activity in reaction to market conditions. Trading volume for BTC/ETH pairs on Kraken also experienced heightened activity, surging by 15 percent to 850 million USD in the 24 hours post-breakdown of the 100,000 USD support, revealing increased volatility across altcoin arenas. The correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum remains strong, with a coefficient of 0.85 as of June 22, 2025, suggesting altcoins are unlikely to disconnect from Bitcoin’s bearish trend unless unique catalysts present themselves.
Institutional sentiment reflects cautiousness as well. ETF outflows from Bitcoin-focused funds, particularly Grayscale’s GBTC, recorded a net withdrawal of 45 million USD on June 21, 2025, at 6:00 PM UTC. This represents dwindling confidence among traditional investors amid turbulent stock market environment. Keeping a close watch on both crypto and stock market sentiments is essential for traders; a stabilization in indices like the S&P 500 could trigger renewed interest and inflows into risk assets like Bitcoin, potentially reinstating the critical 100,000 USD level in the days ahead.
