Bitcoin is experiencing a rebound, recently returning to the high-$90,000 and low-$80,000 range after a temporary dip into the mid-$80,000s. This uptick provides a momentary relief from the short-term selling pressure that has characterized the market in recent weeks.
However, analysts caution that while this rally is noteworthy, it may not be enough to signal the start of a new bull market. The next steps depend on whether several deeper regime indicators start to reverse toward a more risk-on sentiment.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $89,500, marking a modest increase of about 1.4% over the past 24 hours. Despite the recent uptick, Bitcoin is still down more than 7% over the last two weeks, indicating ongoing selling pressure that followed its retreat from record highs near $126,000 late last year.
While Bitcoin prices have shown some stability in the past month, the cryptocurrency remains nearly 13% lower year-to-date and about 29% below its all-time peak. This inconsistency raises questions about the sustainability of the current rebound.
The first point of analysis involves the broader trend structure. Glassnode data reveals that Bitcoin continues to trade above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a critical long-term indicator that institutional investors often watch closely. Historically, trading above this level correlates with bullish market conditions, while movements below it usually indicate bear phases.
The upward trend of the 200-day EMA suggests that long-term demand hasn’t dissipated significantly, implying that recent price retreats may be corrective rather than indicative of a major market reversal.
Another crucial metric is the demand from institutional investors, particularly through U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Since October 2025, ETF holdings have decreased by more than $6 billion, a decline of 8% from peak levels, presenting the first substantial stress test for this relatively new group of investors.
Current on-chain data from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin is hovering near the ETF realized price of approximately $86,600, which represents the average cost basis for ETF buyers. This range operates as a psychological pivot; a price stabilization above it can strengthen investor conviction, while trading below may prompt accelerated redemptions as profit buffers decrease.
Despite some recent outflows softening and ETF realized prices maintaining stability, the lack of consistent inflows indicates that institutional demand remains cautious rather than decisively risk-on.
The third critical metric to consider is Bitcoin’s on-chain cost basis for recent buyers. BitBo data shows that Bitcoin is trading above the Short-Term Holder realized price, estimated to be between the high-$60,000 and low-$70,000 ranges. This positioning implies that most new buyers are not yet in profit, which reduces the likelihood of panic selling and makes it easier to purchase on dips.
Historically, consistently trading above this level aligns with bullish market conditions, whereas breaks below have suggested transitions into more serious bearish phases. Some unease is present, however, as Glassnode noted that this week, Bitcoin struggled to maintain movement towards the long-term holder cost basis of around $96,500, dropping back into a shallow pullback, reminiscent of early phases of previous bear markets in 2018 and 2022.
Interestingly, only about 19.5% of the short-term holder supply is currently at a loss, a statistic well below levels associated with broad capitulation. This indicates a certain resilience among short-term holders, even as other signals suggest caution amidst market volatility.
Moreover, while the trend of Bitcoin supply held at a loss is rising, a pattern historically preceding deeper bear markets, current prices are yet to stabilize, and a careful watch is warranted as the market continues to evolve.
As analysts point out, the combination of weakening on-chain demand, decreased retail participation, and macroeconomic uncertainties—particularly issues surrounding U.S. liquidity—are all contributing factors weighing on market sentiment.
