Raoul Pal’s Bold Bitcoin Bull Market Prediction: A Journey Through 2026
Renowned macro analyst and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal has put forth a compelling forecast suggesting that the ongoing Bitcoin bull market could extend into 2026—far beyond the conventional expectations of a peak in 2025. In a notable presentation, Pal meticulously walked his audience through a series of macroeconomic indicators, historical price behaviors, and liquidity metrics, crafting a narrative that portrays an optimistic future for digital assets.
Bitcoin Bull Market Depends On M2
At the core of Pal’s analysis lies the Global M2 money supply, a pivotal metric indicative of total liquidity circulating globally. He has observed a significant correlation between Bitcoin, alongside other risk-on assets, and fluctuations in Global M2. “If this is the case, then M2 is going to keep going up all f***ing year,” Pal asserted, implying that under such conditions, crypto markets—including Bitcoin and tech stocks—may flourish throughout the year.
Pal draws parallels between the current liquidity trends and those observed in 2017 during a period marked by considerable dollar weakness and soaring equity markets in the first term of U.S. President Donald Trump. He suggests that should major economies continue easing monetary policy, this could propel the next phase of explosive growth within the crypto space.
Central to Pal’s thesis is the idea that global liquidity—specifically Global M2—serves as a leading indicator for Bitcoin and other risk assets. He highlights a correlation between the growth of M2 and the performance of the crypto market, reinforcing his claim that favorable conditions may persist.
The Business Cycle and Bitcoin’s Price Potential
Pal’s forecasts are also intricately interwoven with the business cycle, which he tracks through the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index. Historically, an ISM reading above 50 signals economic expansion, and Pal notes that this correlates strongly with Bitcoin price surges. “Bitcoin goes up as the ISM goes up,” he explained, suggesting that if the ISM continues its upward movement, Bitcoin’s price could potentially soar to $300,000 or more. However, he cautioned against making overly precise predictions, emphasizing that market analysis should be driven by probabilities, not certainties.
Insights on the Altcoin Market
Turning his attention to the altcoin market, Pal underscored that both Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) play significant roles in his portfolio strategy. Despite Solana experiencing a considerable drawdown of over 53%, he dismissed concerns over a long-term decline. “Solana has overshot versus global M2,” he argued, predicting that Solana could outperform Bitcoin throughout this cycle, with Sui potentially outperforming Solana as well.
Pal’s broader perspective on altcoins hinges on shifts in risk appetite as financial conditions improve. Historically, altcoins tend to outperform Bitcoin in the latter stages of a cycle as investors pursue higher-beta opportunities. He readily dismissed the notion that there won’t be an altcoin season in this cycle, stating, “That’s all f****ing nonsense.”
Embracing Volatility in Crypto Markets
A key message Pal conveyed is that significant pullbacks are an inherent feature of crypto bull markets. He recounted historical corrections, indicating that the current cycle has already experienced seven corrections of 20% or more, all while maintaining a staggering 600% gain from its lows. Advising caution, he warned against using leverage and succumbing to panic selling. His mantra, “Don’t F* This Up,” serves as a reminder to investors that navigating market volatility is essential for long-term success. “To make the money, to unf*** your future, you’re going to have to learn to deal with volatility,” he stressed.
Pal compared the present market correction to that of 2017, which witnessed multiple pullbacks of 30-40% before reaching a peak. He noted that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently suggests the market is one of the most oversold in this cycle, hinting at a potential rebound in the near future.
Extending the Bitcoin Cycle to 2026
One of Pal’s most intriguing assertions is that the current bullish cycle may not peak until 2026, a striking departure from the expectations of many analysts projecting a 2025 peak. His analysis points to a prolonged phase of economic stagnation followed by potential growth acceleration. “The business cycle is taking a long time below 50. It’s starting to expand now. That has probably extended the cycle into 2026,” he articulated, emphasizing that this is more a working hypothesis rather than a definitive prediction.
The implications of an extended cycle could be substantial—higher valuations, a sustained influx of investments, and a transition towards a gradual climb rather than a sudden blow-off top. Pal reiterated that the crypto market tends to follow a predictable pattern, often experiencing a year-long “banana zone” of exponential growth. He believes that the current corrective phase aligns with past cycles and anticipates a renewed rally by the spring months. “We are now in correction phase one. Then as we go into March, April, May, we start accelerating up again into the next phase of the banana zone,” he noted.
Nevertheless, Pal cautioned that another major correction might occur before the final market peak, urging investors to remain vigilant against overleveraging and to temper their exuberance as the cycle progresses.
Maintaining Perspective in Investing
In summarizing his outlook, Pal emphasized the critical importance of perspective and emotional regulation in trading. He encouraged investors to adopt a long-term view, prioritize proper portfolio construction, and exercise patience: “You guys need patience more than anything else and need to understand markets. Our futures are resting on the same thing.”
At the time of his insights, Bitcoin was trading at $88,617, setting the stage for a fascinating period in the crypto market as investors navigate these potentially transformative dynamics.
