Joerg Hiller
Apr 11, 2025 21:56
Bitcoin faces pressure from weak fundamentals and macroeconomic volatility, with resilience around $80k suggesting a defense by long-term participants, according to Glassnode.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains under significant pressure, with weak fundamentals and macroeconomic instability posing challenges, according to Glassnode. Despite these challenges, the cryptocurrency shows resilience around the $80,000 mark, indicating potential defense by long-term holders.
Market Overview
The Bitcoin market continues to navigate through volatility, as evidenced by a sharp sell-off followed by a rebound to $82,000. Price fluctuations have raised concerns among investors since the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers below its statistical low, hinting at a possible breakout from the current consolidation range. The spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has further declined to -$167 million, a clear indicator of ongoing sell-side pressure. Despite spot trading volume exceeding $12 billion, the activity seems largely reactive, driven more by selling than new buying interest.
Furthermore, the derivatives market reflects a persistent multi-month downtrend. Open interest here has dipped to $33.94 billion, while funding rates have edged upward to $1.11 million a day. Notably, the Perpetual CVD has seen a sharp decrease to -$594 million, suggesting significant sell pressure exerted by market takers and liquidations. In the options market, expectations for volatility have experienced a resurgence, albeit with open interest remaining low at $21.77 billion. The 25 Delta Skew is indicating strong hedging activity, sitting elevated at 0.08.
ETF and On-Chain Signals
In the realm of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), inflows have turned negative again, with a notable decline of $297 million. Despite this downturn, trading volume jumped to $22.45 billion in response to increased market volatility. Intriguingly, the ETF Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has dipped to 1.23, hinting that ETF holders are starting to test their cost basis levels near $80,000. This could be interpreted as an attempt to ascertain whether the price can hold at this critical threshold.
On-chain metrics are showing concerning signs as well. Active addresses and transfer volumes have displayed a lack of strength, with daily fee volume falling to just $458,000, indicating minimal demand for block space. Moreover, liquidity inflows are sluggish, and realized cap growth has slowed to a mere 0.80% per month. As short-term supply gradually matures into long-term holdings, speculative activities seem to decline—evident from the Hot Capital Share dropping below its statistical lows. Profitability indicators are also trending downward, with the Percent Supply in Profit standing at 76%, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) at 0.45, and the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio at just 0.21.
The overall market position for Bitcoin appears fragile, underpinned by weak fundamentals, declining profitability, and soft liquidity. This precarious state makes Bitcoin particularly susceptible to macroeconomic shocks. However, the resilience shown around the $80,000 mark may present a constructive signal, especially if there is stabilization in broader market conditions.
For a more detailed analysis, visit the original report on Glassnode.
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