At the time of van de Poppe’s tweet, Bitcoin was trading around $65,000 against the USDT on major exchanges like Binance. This represented a 2.1% decline over the preceding 24 hours, with trading volume spiking to over $30 billion across various exchanges. The rapid trading activity indicated a mix of profit-taking and potential panic selling. Notably, van de Poppe pointed out that this liquidity withdrawal often precedes further price declines, signaling a pivotal moment for traders looking to navigate the market’s current landscape.
Additionally, the context within the broader stock market reflects a cautious risk-off sentiment. On the same day, S&P 500 index futures were down 0.5% early in the morning, indicative of a hesitance among investors—a trend often correlated with negative price movements in Bitcoin and other digital assets. More specifically, before significant macroeconomic announcements like the FOMC’s decisions, a wary stock market can place downward pressure on Bitcoin.
From a technical trading perspective, van de Poppe’s analysis suggested that Bitcoin is approaching a critical price zone, between $64,500 and $65,000, which could potentially serve as a reversal point. This price range aligns with historical support levels and signals where liquidity could re-enter the market, possibly allowing for long positions if confirmed by volume and positive momentum indicators.
The FOMC meeting scheduled for June 18, 2025, stands out as a potential catalyst for market movement. Dovish signals regarding interest rates could boost risk appetite and attract institutional investment back into the crypto space. Conversely, a hawkish outlook from the FOMC could deepen the current downtrend, pushing Bitcoin toward lower support levels around $62,000.
A cross-market analysis reveals a significant correlation between Bitcoin and tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq 100, which also experienced declines. Futures trading for the Nasdaq fell by 0.7% on June 17, underlining the importance of monitoring stock market movements. A continued risk-off atmosphere could result in further outflows from Bitcoin as investors seek safer assets.
On-chain metrics add another layer to the analysis. As of 1:00 PM UTC on June 17, 2025, Bitcoin saw an inflow of 15,000 BTC to exchanges, indicating potential selling pressure. This positive inflow could foreshadow further downward movement unless significant buying volume replaces it.
Diving into technical indicators, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 42 as of 2:00 PM UTC on the same day, signaling oversold conditions that could pave the way for a bounce if buying volume increases. The 50-day moving average, currently positioned at $67,000, stands as a key resistance level, with immediate support noted at $64,000. Trading volume on Binance for the BTC/USDT pair surged to approximately $12 billion in the last 24 hours, a 15% increase from the previous day, indicative of heightened market participation.
In contrast, the ETH/BTC pair on Kraken displayed signs of Ethereum underperforming, with a 1.5% decline to 0.053 BTC. This indicates a broader weakness among altcoins, reinforcing the need for traders to remain aware of Bitcoin’s relative strength within the market.
Institutional dynamics further complicate the landscape. Data from CoinShares revealed a net outflow of $30 million from Bitcoin ETFs on June 16, 2025, aligning with the stock market’s bearish sentiment. Such institutional hesitance could delay any potential Bitcoin recovery unless favorable catalysts emerge post-FOMC meeting.
For traders, practical advice suggests that scalping opportunities exist near the $64,000 support, with tight stop-losses positioned below $63,500 to mitigate potential losses. Swing traders, on the other hand, may adopt a more patient approach, awaiting confirmation of a reversal above $66,000 following the FOMC announcement.
In summary, the complex interplay between stock market sentiment, FOMC expectations, and Bitcoin’s technical setup poses a layered challenge for traders. The observed correlation between crypto and traditional assets underscores the necessity for a comprehensive analysis of cross-asset dynamics. Institutional flows, particularly into crypto-related ETFs and stocks like MicroStrategy—whose shares fell by 3% to $1,450—further emphasize the interconnectedness of these markets, prompting traders to stay alert and adaptable as they navigate this volatile environment.
